Climate Disaster

 

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT CLIMATE TO PROTECT YOUR CHILDREN

There seems to be a desperate need for people to want to not believe in global climate warming. This is enhanced by the deniers – oil companies and politicians putting out information that makes the issue confusing and uncertain, a loophole for people to not believe in science. Deniers often criticize conclusions in climate science, offer different conclusions but never, never prove their case that there is no human caused damaging climate change. But the truth is that climate warming is very real and worse, the harm from it is worse than expected. If you don’t believe in human caused climate change then examine the ‘world’s largest insurers record payouts from 2010.’ “This rise cannot be explained without global warming.” (McKibben, Newsweek Sep.5, 2011, p5)

Most of the severe weather today has probably a 40 % or more component of climate change. Weather is now extreme events, never seen before. The threat of drowned cites is one of the the major calamities and Hurricane Katrina’s impact upon New Orleans created a first major urban victim when 2,000 died. The cost for the repair of levees alone was $9 Billion dollars. Today October 11, 2011, flood waters are starting to engulf Bangkok, a city of nearly 12 millions and the disaster is now playing out. The UN reported that with all the natural climate disasters about one quarter of a million people die each year. (Time, April 2010) But often it is invisible to us, malaria, drought, starvation, so we believe the deniers. We are killing our childrens’ futures.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and thousands of scientists have proven it at 95% confidence. There is no doubt. Scientific results are unquestionable. When someone tells you it is not occurring, they are lying!

IPPC Climate Change 2007- Synthesis Report The hard scientific measures of research from the “IPPC expert meeting on Detection and Attribution” says,

1. “Global atmospheric concentrations of CO2, CH4 and N2Ohave increased markedly as a result of human activity since 1750. … CO2 and NH4 exceed by far the natural range over the last 650 ,000 years.” [ch 1.3]

2. Gillet ET AL “Anthropogenic contribution to Forest fires. The influence of anthropogenic forcing on area burnt by forest fires in Canada was detected.” p3

3. “Slow extraordinary levels of Greenhouse gas GHG concentration and contain, quantitative evidence from the past about anthropocentric effects” p 21

4. “Recent observation by De’ath et al (2009) of a decline in calcification across three hundred 300 long-lived coral colonies on the great barrier reef is evidence of the impact of ocean acidification” p4

5. “Because the IPCC WGI concluded that most of the average temperature increases over the past 50 years are due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations at the global and continental scale – significant attribution was assigned when both spatial statistics methods yielded significantly stronger pattern agreement between observed impacts and observed temperature changes than those occurring with temperature patterns form natural variability .” p5

6. Attribution is when climate warming is “consistent with the estimated responses to the given combination of anthropogenic [versus] natural forcing …. It is extremely unlikely that the global pattern of warming during the past half century can be explained without external forcing. …This led to the assessment that greenhouse gas forcing has very likely caused most of the observed global

warming over the last fifty years.” Annex 3, Hegerl p.25-6

7. It “is likely that there has been a substantial anthropogenic contribution to surface temperature increases over every continent” [Antarctica was not included as of date of this article.] p. 26. “shown by multi model data sets 1906- 2005.” figure 1. p 26[Ch 6.1] 8. “Conservative estimates of variation in the sea temperature and carbonate ion concentration for coral reefs over 420,000 years reveal that ‘current conditions’ for coral reefs are well outside those that coral reefs have experienced over this long period” Hoegh, Guldberg. Fig 1. p 30

It is fact! It is true! This is not a subjective belief system!

A Boondoggle That Kills – an address to politicians

There is a general lack of accurate and complete information in public education and the media that reports about death rates from anthropocentric caused global warming. The media and the public schools have failed our children. They have not informed people about how accurate climate science is and how catastrophic climate warming will become.

This subject has been victim of much intentional confusion pushed upon the public by deniers paid by oil companies as was the case with the cigarette companies and cancer. The science, however, is straightforward, clear and exacting. The CO 2 releases from burning fossil fuels has caused global warming. There have been measurement of ice cores and a host of research described by: Lester Brown- Plan B2, Gwyenne Dyer – Climate Wars, Dr. James Hansen- Storms of My Grandchildren, Friedman -Hot Flat and Crowded, Alanna Mitchell – Seasick, and these are listed in their bibliographies, and as well, IPCC reports, UN Reports, WHO and a host of other scientific reports. Are CBC reporters doing their research homework? One U of California, Berkley professor R, Muller, who was a serious skeptic and funded by the Koch Foundation, deniers involved in oil industry, said “we now have confidence that the temperature rise previously reported had been done without bias.”(WFP Oct 31,2011 p 13 A).

The cause of global warming is of course the vast plant growth during the time of the dinosaurs,- Carboniferous, Permian, Triassic and Jurassic, and with heat and pressure over 200 million

years this created our coal, oil, and natural gas deposits sequestering vast amounts of CO2. We have used one half of the oil deposits today releasing 200,000,000 years of CO2, into the atmosphere in just over 100 years, increasing our CO2 loading in the atmosphere at a million times the natural rate, causing global warming. It is not a God given event but a human caused one. Scientists now think the CO2 in the atmosphere is about the same as in the Permian (“late cretaceous”) which caused an animal extinction killing off about 50% of anima11 life. “In just a few decades, humans are causing a change in the composition of the atmosphere that are as large as the changes that took millions of years to occur during geological climate cycles.” (Macleod and Londono et al., Missouri and Florida Universities. Science Daily Oct 27,2011)

In 1998 in Central America hurricane Mitch killed 11,000 people. (Scientific American, Jan. 2011 p70). The USA storm that spawned 200 tornadoes April 18, 2011 and one a few days later killed up to 500 people. This weather was 40% above the long term norm, as was the Indus R. flood that killed more than 10,000 and both were clearly anthropocentric climate warming events. Yet in the CBC reporting, the death rates are never connected to human caused climate warming. This allows the deniers position to be reaffirmed. In fact, about September 15, 2011 “The National” left a printed note on the screen that, “climate warming was unproven.” This was an outright lie. Climate warming has been proved the same way cigarettes were proved to cause cancer. In the minds of honest scientists there is no doubt about global warming.

About the week of September 5, 2011 it was reported that:

* “The arctic could be unfrozen in thirty years.” (The National) This is drastic, extremely significant and will speed up global warming, since ice reflects heat. This speed up should have been announced.

•  
  * Six countries have had all time high temperatures and none have had all time lows. (ENN)

  * In the last 40 years the oceans have become 30% more acidic. This is of course related to dissolved CO2 creating carbonic acid and a direct tie into the CO2 in the atmosphere. A turnover in oceans would be more drastic than climate warming alone. (Alanna Mitchell, Gwynne Dyer)

Why do the CBC and all media not report more fully and according to the scientific position about the connection between human caused climate warming and increasing death rates? Is this political?

We never had problems connecting cigarettes with cancer in reporting, why is there this deviation in reporting honestly on climate events today? It will cost our children and grandchildren dearly. I take great exception to this lack of correct complete reporting.

Since this is a mortal disaster of unparalleled proportions this huge event should be followed up weekly or even daily, not as separate events, but as a continuation of human caused climate warming.

The understanding of this as one huge event is critical to the need for public action and the saving of the children. You have noted that 29,000 children have died in Somalia. This is almost certainly related to global warming. There is a desperate need for formal education and the media to teach and report accurately on anthropocentric global warming.

Dr Hansen states in his book that there will be continuous drying if we do not change our ways and convert away from fossil fuels.

We have broken away from the natural warming and cooling system of the earth. During the Pleistocene there were about four glacial advances and retreats (melting). This pattern is now broken. Hansen says there are forcings that enhance the warming.

1.  
   1.  
      1. As perma frost melts it will release methane a green house gas 20 times worse than CO2.
      2. As the ice melts less heat is reflected back to space, thus increasing the warming trend.

Again:

Recently on ENN I believe it said that the acidity in the oceans has increased by 30% over the last 40 years. This also means that the acidity will kill off the zoo plankton in vast numbers. These fall to the ocean bottom, rot and release sulfide gases.

It is now thought the Permian extinction (50 % of animals died off, as shown by the fossil record ) was caused in part by the release of sulfide gases. Alana Mitchell says we are very near a turnover in ocean ecosystem that could cause such a problem again.

As well, science says the CO2 in the atmosphere during the Permian was about the same a today (shown by air trapped in the glacial ice samples and by isotope studies of the gases.)

Cigarette companies were convicted for cancer deaths caused by smoking, and the same statistical evidence holds for deaths from global warming. In BC those who helped in the killing of the four RCMP officers were also convicted and jailed.

We now have had extreme climate events statistically caused in part (At least 40% says IPCC) by global warming. Global warming is a international problem so any one in every location contributes to the problem over the world. About twenty years ago I was at the Tech Museum in San Jose, California. Their model forecast very warm temperatures in the arctic in 200 years. Warming has sped up drastically and climate models are much more accurate today.

We had deaths from extreme flooding events in Australia, Canada, China, Central America and the USA. About 500 died in the 200 plus tornadoes in the US April 2011. Ten thousand died in the 2010 floods never before occurring, in the Indus R. Valley in Pakistan, and the flood is worse this year. 29 thousand children have died in Somalia (the horn of Africa) from drought and starvation and up to 12 million are at risk.

Surely just as in the case of the RCMP, senior politicians and the oil companies are complicit in these world death rates. The Media and schools must teach and broadcast the total story so our grandchildren will not suffer. We can change to ecologically sustainable fuels.

Please tell us all how you can more completely, accurately and frequently report on this catastrophic event. We need the media and public education to respond. We need your reply. The young need your reply.

_________________________________________

FACTS

Now it it important that I substantiate this position with facts. The half dozen books I have read and made notes on are based on sound science. There is a vast amount of very good science on what is causing global warming. First Diamond wrote Collapse to show were past civilizations died off from over using their natural environment. Lester Brown wrote Plan B2. He is a very credible person who has been in the business of monitoring the environment for many decades. Friedman’s Hot, Flat and Crowded is thorough and proposes solutions. The best I have read are Gwyenne Dyer’s Climate Wars. His bibliography supporting his book lists scientific reports 5 pages long. Alana Mitchell ‘s Seasick is an excellent book on the condition of the seas reporting a deadly turnover in ocean ecosystems if we do not change. It probably lead to the rogers “Earth System Expert” report. Sea creatures cannot stand much temperature and acidity change. The dying phyto plankton and zoo plankton, falls to the ocean bottom, decays and produces hydrogen sulfide. In the past it is hypothesized these gasses bubbled to surface creating vast clouds of deadly gases and during the Permian period this phenomena drove extinction of 50% of all animal life. The CO2 in the atmosphere, creates carbonic acid and the CO2 of the Permian is very much like the levels of CO2 levels in the atmosphere today, according to science. (Mitchell quotes from a twenty five page bibliography of reports and science and she has done research world wide. Would you believe her rather that a “denier” with just opinion?)

A Future Scenario - supported by increasing amounts of evidence.

People have noted the demise of bee colonies. The investigation does not find a distinct factor.

In the summer of 2011 the mosquitoes have mysteriously disappeared. Minute particles of hydrogen sulfide are blowing in from the oceans in small clouds that are not yet detectable. The phenomena is just mysterious. We have noted that there are more deaths from asthma. There is a forecast that 2,000 will die annually from asthma and related lung diseases in Toronto (Press report ). The old, babies and small children seem to be more susceptible to this “disease”.

There is also a note from Environment Canada that small birds are dropping in population. (Phone call 2010). In the imminent future an odd person notes small birds falling out of trees. Then someone does notice, a rotten egg smell and complains about it . They count it as an accidental gas release from storage on the south perimeter gas cylinders and make no more of it. The bird die off begins to be much more serious and now there seems to be a plague of deaths of infants that is unexplainable. The rotten egg smell becomes more predominant and people begin to harass government to do something about it. At the same time droughts increase. By 2075 vast droughts impact the grain harvests. Starvation expanded from Somalia becomes widespread, even in North America.

Women get up in the morning finding sudden crib death or their child dying in their arms. When appeals to politicians fail riots break out against government. Science again connects it to fossil fuel use, CO2, concentrations and acidification of the oceans. In the oceans the dead zones have vastly increased, many started by oil spills. Low oxygen users such as jelly fish are becoming predominant ( Japan – trawler evidence). The sulfur based life once found only near the mid Atlantic rift fumaroles has now spread and sulfur loving bacteria thrive. (CBC Documentary) It is late. The oceans are now in a state of ecosystem turnover. (Dyer and Mitchell forecast.) The oceans are becoming stagnant, lower oxygen levels occur and fish die offs are prevalent. Starvations are now occurring in the third world of near ocean populations that depend upon oceans for food. Oceans have now become much more acidic.

On land many crops fail due to pollinators dying off.

Although riots occur against government , they have acted too late. Birds and small animals die off first. The atmosphere carries a constant rotten egg smell. Though there are populations hidden behind high mountain walls such as Tibet north of the Himalayas, the die off of people in coastal communities is horrendous. Order breaks down and street killings become common, first of politicians and later not for food but for oxygen supplies. We die as animals did in the Permian extinction long before. The sulfide gases burbling from the oceans are not selective, rich and poor die, young and old. But the sulfide clouds vary and those small villages behind large mountain ranges, while not getting off Scott free, are able to survive. The phenomena goes on for a million years. Most common animals are extinct, while a few new ones, first more tolerant of sulfur, evolve.

Not with a bang, but with a whimper.

A Dr. Hansen scenario. Dr James Hansen, Director of NASA Goddard Institute

for Space Studies, “Storms of Our Grandchildren- Climate Catastrophe – our last chance to save humanity” His scenario,

“A spaceship approaches earth over the Pacific.

Pilot, “What do the temperatures show?”

Co Pilot, “The temp seems to be 100 degrees Celsius”

Pilot, “It seems to be all cloudy and steamy”

Co Pilot, “It can’t be cloudy everywhere”

Later in the middle latitudes N. America, Europe, Asia they found were all deserts with blowing sand.”

Hansen says, “The above scenario with earth purged of life may read like far fetched science fiction, Yet its central hypothesis is a tragic certainty”,… “we hand our children and grandchildren a situation that is out of their control.” “It is us, it is now”

Dr. Hansen also has studied glacier and ice cap melt. He says at present accelerating global warming rates we could be faced with a dislodging of the western ice shelves on Antarctica, breaking off and melting and if there is significant melt of glaciers in Greenland at the same time ocean levels could raise 25 feet in a fairly short time. New York, Shanghai and Miami would all become disasters.

Dr. David Suzuki

The Globe and Mail’s Ibbitson said, “The Pembina Institute and David Suzuki foundation have the courage to uncover and tell us the truth.”

Dr. David Suzuki’s words:

“Resolving a global problem like climate change will cost us money, . But doing nothing will cost us much more.”

“Former world bank chief economist Lord Stern, has estimated that to keep heat-trapping green house gas emissions below levels that would cause catastrophic climate change would cost us up to two per cent of global GDP , but failure to act could cost form from five to 20% of global GDP.” “ The very survival of people may well be at stake.” “Runaway climate change could have devastating impacts on our food and water supplies”. “Do we leave our children and grandchildren a world of misery?”

The New Olean’s hurricane killed 2,000.

The Tornadoes in the USA killed 500. (April 2011)

The Indus R flood in Pakistan killed 10,000 (2010)

The whole city of Bangkok may now become flooded.(Oct 2011, 270 killed)

The global costs of property damage should be on the oil companies’ balance sheets as their cost of doing business and not be a public cost.